• Last week
• What’s on the schedule
• Cross-asset read
• Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
• Three falsifiable watches
• What I’m not doing

§Last week

ndx ripped 3.26% while vix collapsed 15.64% to 16.40. that’s the signal. a vol crush of that magnitude with equities at all-time highs says the market is pricing in a velvet-glove fed, not a hawkish one. warsh’s refusal to publish dot plots should have injected uncertainty. instead, traders bought the ambiguity. the 10y yield barely budged, down 0.27% on the week, rangebound between 4.42 and 4.51. rates vol is asleep.

crypto didn’t get the memo. btc dropped 2.71%, eth got smoked down 3.65%. the eth/btc ratio continues to deteriorate. gold also soft, down 0.36% with a failed attempt to hold above 4300. dxy pushed through 100.50 and closed at 100.88, up 1.14% on the week. stronger dollar, weaker crypto and gold. classic risk-off rotation within the risk-on complex. the peace-talk headlines around iran didn’t help haven bids.

usd/jpy is the one to watch. 161.47 close, right at the top of a 160.06-161.57 weekly range. nky up 4.17% on the week despite yen weakness. this pair is coiling. a break above 161.57 with cpi catalysts this week could trigger a momentum chase. a rejection and move back below 160.50 falsifies the breakout thesis.

§What’s on the schedule

• CA CPI m/m today (high). asymmetry: above 0.3% m/m, usd/cad breaks 1.3750 resistance, cad shorts work. below 0.1%, usd/cad tests 1.3600 support. consensus unknown, so watching the print against recent trend. trimmed and median cpi same window. if all three point cooler, boc macklem tomorrow gets dovish cover.

• US core PCE m/m thursday (high). the fed’s preferred gauge. above 0.3% m/m, 10y yield breaks 4.51% resistance, ndx sells off 2% minimum. below 0.2%, yield tests 4.42% support, ndx pushes toward 31000. this is the week’s main event for us rates.

• AU CPI wednesday, employment thursday (both high). two shots at aud/usd vol. cpi above 3.0% y/y, aud/usd rallies toward 0.6700. employment miss below 15k, aud/usd tests 0.6550. the rba is data-dependent and these are the data.

• JP CPI national friday (high). tokyo core thursday first, then national. above 2.5% y/y, usd/jpy could finally break 162.00. below 2.0%, yen shorts cover, usd/jpy back to 160.00 handle. boj meeting not until next month but cpi sets the tone.

§Cross-asset read

the term structure is pricing calm. vix at 16.40 with spot ndx at 30406 means the market expects this grind higher to continue. no fear of a drawdown. the 10y yield at 4.45 with dxy above 100.80 suggests real rates are doing the heavy lifting, not inflation expectations. gold’s failure at 4300 confirms this. crypto’s underperformance relative to equities tells me liquidity is rotating within risk assets, not expanding. btc’s correlation to ndx has broken down this week. that’s worth tracking. if btc can’t rally with equities, it’s vulnerable on any equity pullback.

§Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits

all bots flat. no open positions across the fleet. vega29 and vega34 both sitting in cash after closing prior trades. lyra-gold equity at 14795 with a 2.42 pf, drawdown only 2.05%. volforge still in paper mode, pf 999 is a placeholder for no losing trades yet. assay-paper up 6.4% mtd with a 2.94 pf, crucible-paper flat on the month. soulz at 11796 equity, 1.25 pf. the fleet is patient. no forced trades. waiting for the cpi and pce prints to generate entry signals.

§Three falsifiable watches

• short ndx on core pce surprise. instrument: nq futures or sqqq. trigger: core pce m/m prints 0.3% or higher on thursday. time horizon: 48 hours post-print. target: ndx 29500. falsified if: ndx closes above 30600 within two sessions of the print. the asymmetry is convex. a hot print into an overbought, low-vol market creates a tail event.

• long usd/jpy on cpi momentum. instrument: usd/jpy spot or futures. trigger: tokyo core cpi thursday prints above 2.5% y/y, followed by national cpi friday confirming above 2.5%. time horizon: into friday close. target: 162.50. falsified if: usd/jpy closes below 160.50 on friday. the carry is positive, the trend is up, and the catalyst stack is aligned.

• long aud/usd on aussie data beat. instrument: aud/usd spot. trigger: au cpi wednesday above 3.0% y/y AND employment thursday above 20k. time horizon: thursday close. target: 0.6720. falsified if: either print misses and aud/usd closes below 0.6600. the rba has been on hold. two strong data points force a repricing of hike odds.

§What I’m not doing

i considered fading the ndx rally ahead of pce by buying vix calls. rejected it. the vol crush to 16.40 means options are cheap, but the timing is wrong. with no catalyst until thursday, theta decay eats the position. i also looked at shorting eth against btc on the ratio breakdown. the trend is clear but the pair is already extended. chasing a 3.65% weekly drop without a fresh catalyst is a recipe for getting whipsawed. waiting for a bounce to re-enter. gold long from 4150 was tempting after the 4300 rejection. rejected because dxy strength is real and the trend is lower. no reason to fight both the dollar and the rate complex.

educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.

— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.