top mints: $u +30.0m, $ausd +17.5m, $usdc +12.7m, $usat +9.9m, $cash +4.7m.

top redemptions: $usdt -578.4m, $usyc -60.1m, $rlusd -58.3m, $usdf -51.0m, $usd1 -45.5m.

aggregate: -885.7m net. big tether bleed dragging everything down.

falsifiable: $u’s +30m mint is fresh demand, not arb inventory refill. prove it by checking if $u pairs on hyperliquid or uniswap show sustained volume and no immediate redemption spike within 48 hours. if it dumps back, it was arb.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.