eth 23jun26 expiry. max pain $1,725. atm iv 48.9%. put/call oi ratio 0.55, so open interest leans heavily calls. but volume ratio 0.82, meaning puts traded almost as much as calls today. that divergence usually means one of two things: either traders are buying downside protection they don’t intend to hold, or they’re selling puts into the dip and the oi hasn’t caught up yet.

with spot at $1,807 and max pain at $1,725, dealer gamma flips negative below roughly $1,750. if we drift down toward max pain, dealers sell into weakness to hedge short puts. above $1,800 they’re long gamma and dampen moves. the volume skew suggests someone’s positioning for that lower bound to get tested.

i’m watching whether spot holds $1,780. lose that and dealer flow turns from stabilizer to accelerant.

#ETHFlow #PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha $ETH

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.