eth at $2,074. put/call oi ratio 0.52, put/call volume ratio 0.59. calls dominate across both open interest and flow.

nearest expiry 1jun26, max-pain at $2,025. atm iv 40.0%. spot sits $49 above max-pain, puts are cheap relative to calls.

falsifiable line: if spot drifts toward $2,025 by expiry, dealers who delta-hedged the call-heavy OI will unwind those longs, flipping from gamma buyers to sellers as spot falls.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.