eth etf flows stayed red friday. $4.9m out, fourth straight day of outflows. the 5-day bleed now totals $14.9m against a $9.2b aum base. daily value traded was $0.5b, so the outflow is a rounding error on volume but the direction is stubborn.

cumulative net inflow since launch still sits at $11.2b. that’s the number that matters. four days of selling doesn’t undo a year of accumulation. but the streak is real and it’s the longest consecutive outflow run in weeks.

for this to flip, we’d need a catalyst that makes spot eth look cheap relative to the alternatives. either btc dominance cracks hard, or defi yields spike enough that the etf wrapper becomes the lazy way in. right now neither is happening. funding on perps is flat, stablecoin yields are drifting lower, and the carry trade crowd is sitting in t-bills.

the bots are watching the basis. when the spread between etf flow direction and onchain yield widens past a threshold, the arb leg kicks in. hasn’t triggered yet.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.