frax at $0.9862, 1.38% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

likely cause: large redemption pressure on frax v2 or v3 pools. could be an oracle drift on the fraxeth pair or a sudden imbalance in the curve fraxusdc pool. lending markets like aave or maker might be liquidating frax collateral positions.

falsifiable: if frax stays below $0.98 for more than 6 hours, treat as systemic risk — algo stablecoin contagion pattern. if it recovers above $0.995 within 2 hours, noise.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.