• 🔻 Macro Framework: High Rates, Geopolitics, and a Strong Dollar
• 🏦 Institutional Dynamics and Liquidity Shrinkage
• 📉 Selling Pressure and On-Chain Distribution
• ⛏️ Miner Pressure and Mining Costs
• 📝 Weekly Summary
• 🔮 Bitcoin Forecasts
  • Medium Term (Remainder of 2026)
  • Long Term (2027–2030)

§🔻 Macro Framework: High Rates, Geopolitics, and a Strong Dollar

• Bitcoin posted a weekly drop of over 14%, falling to $60,000 – its lowest level since last February – after losing the key $73,000 support zone. The total crypto market capitalization fell 15% to $2.08 trillion.
• New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, sworn in on May 22, is considered the most crypto-literate person ever to lead the central bank. However, he supports tight monetary policy. Expectations of high rates throughout 2026 have put downward pressure on Bitcoin. Inflation remains above target, with May CPI coming in at 3.8%, dampening hopes for rate cuts. Key June employment and inflation reports will determine the Fed’s next moves.
• The U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade have kept oil prices elevated, fueling inflation and limiting the Fed’s flexibility, resulting in reduced risk appetite.

§🏦 Institutional Dynamics and Liquidity Shrinkage

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of approximately $4.4 billion over a 13-session streak of net selling, marking the longest outflow streak since their introduction. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for over $3.3 billion in outflows. A single day in June saw $506 million in outflows, followed by another $326 million outflow on BlackRock on June 5, signaling persistent institutional weakness.
• May ended with $2.43 billion in net outflows from spot ETFs, with $1.42 billion leaving in the last week alone. Stablecoin liquidity decreased by about $3 billion, further stripping the market of buying power. June is historically the second-weakest month for Bitcoin (average return -0.8%).
• Six U.S. senators (including Dan Sullivan and Cynthia Lummis) have asked regulators to revisit the Basel rule that assigns Bitcoin a 1,250% risk weight, considering it too punitive for institutional adoption. The Bank of Russia announced it will limit non-qualified retail investors to only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT, with the new “On Digital Currency” law becoming operational on July 1, 2026.

§📉 Selling Pressure and On-Chain Distribution

• On-chain data showed a return to a distribution phase. The short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio (STH-SOPR) dropped to 0.98, indicating that those who bought in the last 155 days are selling primarily at a loss, while the network-wide realized profit/loss ratio worsened to -0.87 from -0.4 the previous week.
• Daily exchange inflows reached six-month highs. 53,800 BTC were transferred from short-term holders to exchanges in just 24 hours, with every single coin in loss – the strongest liquidation wave this year.
• Market sentiment plunged into “extreme fear” with a score of 12 out of 100.

§⛏️ Miner Pressure and Mining Costs

• Miners closed May with $10.86 billion in revenue, the most profitable month since January 2026. However, the 18% drop in hashprice over 30 days pushed daily revenue to just $30.77 per PH/s, putting strong pressure on miners with obsolete machinery. Mining difficulty reached a new all-time high of 138.96 trillion, while hashrate remains near 1.019 ZH/s. If the price does not regain momentum, an estimated 7.5% difficulty drop is expected around June 13, a rare defensive network move to ease pressure on miners.

§📝 Weekly Summary

The first week of June marked a bearish turning point. Bitcoin collapsed from $73,500 to $60,000, experiencing its worst weekly performance in months. The combination of record ETF outflows, stablecoin liquidity contraction, on-chain distribution activity, and expectations of high rates throughout 2026 triggered a broad sell-off that also swept up higher-beta altcoins. The correlation between crypto and other macro assets weakened, with Bitcoin showing for the first time in its history a decoupled dynamic, breaking from traditional risk indices.

§🔮 Bitcoin Forecasts

§Medium Term (Remainder of 2026)

• The baseline scenario remains bearish at least through the third quarter. Institutional outflows and the absence of fresh liquidity make any recovery attempt fragile. For a sustainable bullish reversal, Bitcoin would need to recapture the $72,000-79,000 area, the current “cost basis zone” for short-term holders.

• According to analyst Aralez’s projections, Bitcoin could remain in a strong bear market until a final bottom is printed in the third quarter. In July, a potential test of $53,000 (a “major bear trap”) is anticipated, while August could see a brief relief rally to $65,000-68,000, described as a potential “bull trap.”

• PlanB and other analysts see a greater than 50% probability that Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in June, with the next strong support identified at the 200-week moving average near $61,000 (already tested) and the realized price.

• A more structured recovery could arrive in October, with a cycle low estimated around $46,000. From there, a potential breakout could push Bitcoin above $85,000 in November and attempt $100,000 in December.

§Long Term (2027–2030)

• The most optimistic analysts (including Blade) believe the bear market bottom may already be in place, with a possible bullish reversal as early as 2026. Targets by 2030 include $160,000 (minimum structural projection) and an ambitious $400,000, supported by post-halving cyclical scarcity and potential large-scale institutional adoption.

• Bitwise argues that Bitcoin could be a primary beneficiary of a future global debt reckoning, positioning itself as an uncorrelated safe-haven asset in multi-asset portfolios, especially in a scenario of prolonged fiscal instability.

• The regulatory framework – although currently restrictive – could evolve favorably in the medium term, thanks to growing pressure from U.S. legislators to revise Basel capital rules and the arrival of a more crypto-literate Fed leadership.

• Miners will continue to face a strong consolidation phase: only firms with access to efficient hardware and low-cost energy sources will survive, with a growing migration toward AI and HPC to diversify revenues.