John Cornyn’s defeat could be the end of the GOP establishment
As soon as polls closed in Texas on Tuesday, the Associated Press called a decisive victory for state Attorney General Ken Paxton, presumably ending Sen. John Cornyn’s 35-year political career. The 30-point margin was also another feather in Donald Trump’s cap.“Last night was very powerful,” the president said at the start of Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting at the White House. In an earlier Truth Social post, he called Cornyn a friend and promised to headline “big, beautiful rallies” for Paxton in the upcoming months.For the rest of the day, Trump posted screenshots of news outlets covering a 100% success rate in primary endorsements so far this year.'It’s an all time total collapse and embarrassment for the GOP establishment.'In addition to showcasing Trump’s endorsement weight, the runoff election results also exposed the weakness of the Senate Republican establishment. For months, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott took to the morning news shows extolling Cornyn’s virtues while insisting that he was the key to keeping Texas safely red. The NRSC posted lists of Paxton’s various personal and professional scandals, as Cornyn called his opponent an embarrassment.In his concession speech Tuesday night, Cornyn committed to supporting Paxton as the party’s nominee, despite spending months calling him scandal-ridden and morally unqualified to hold office. Chastened Senate Republicans are likewise reversing course.“A vote for Ken Paxton in November is a vote for a safer, stronger, and more prosperous America. He has my endorsement and support,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) posted to X on Tuesday night. He had previously endorsed Cornyn. “[James] Talarico is too radical for Texas. Ken will be a key member of our Senate Republican majority fighting for America First.”The same night, the NRSC deleted every critical post of Paxton it had made over the past year, even though its statement on the general election does not mention him by name. Some conservative activists now want the organization to clean house. Breitbart News Washington bureau chief Matthew Boyle personally tagged NRSC staffers in posts on X, needling them for backing the wrong horse.“It’s an all time total collapse and embarrassment for the GOP establishment,” Boyle wrote.The NRSC faced a dilemma that Paxton’s backers will now confront. One of the most senior Republicans in the Senate, Cornyn has been a GOP fundraising heavyweight — a potentially significant factor in what is shaping up to be a strong Democratic year. He was also a former NRSC chair in 2010 and 2012. He could have largely funded his own race.Paxton, however, will need party money to keep pace with newly emboldened Democrats who are pouring money into Talarico’s campaign. Furthermore, Paxton’s impeachment, messy divorce, and fraud allegations provide plenty of fodder for Democrat attack ads.RELATED: JD Vance might be unstoppable in 2028 Akos Stiller/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesTrump delivered his endorsement for Paxton on May 19 on Truth Social, after early voting had already begun in Texas. He did not notify the NRSC or Senate Republicans in advance of his post.“He essentially let them know he didn’t care about their preferences at all,” Josh Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project, told RCP. “From a Republican elite perspective, not only does it look like you have to spend more money in Texas now, but you have to convince your donors that Ken Paxton is a good vehicle for that money — and Paxton has a challenging past to reconcile.”As if on cue, the first Talarico ad dropped by Democrats detailed the many controversies that have dogged Paxton’s career. His wife filed for divorce in 2025, citing adultery. Former staffers have testified that he used his office to convince a friend to give his mistress a job.In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives impeached Paxton on 20 articles for bribery, obstruction of justice, and abuse of power, but the state Senate voted to acquit and reinstate him. In 2024, he paid $300,000 and completed community service to settle an indictment for securities fraud.Nevertheless, Cornyn’s re-election bid was already flailing even before Trump weighed in. Conservative voters were not enamored with his 2022 efforts to pass a bipartisan red-flag law. Last year, the National Association for Gun Rights PAC endorsed Paxton. In 2023, Cornyn suggested Trump might not be electable any more, a comment he walked back in 2024 and last year. But Trump remembered.“I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough,” Trump wrote in a congratulatory post for Paxton.Despite outspending the Paxton campaign 17-1 in advertising alone, Cornyn remained in a statistical tie with his opponent for most of his campaign.“I think Paxton probably still could have won without Trump’s endorsement, but not at that magnitude. It was a blowout,” Conservative Partnership Institute Vice President of programs Rachel Bovard told RCP. “The Senate Republican conference is the chummiest place in America. Their political loyalties are to each other. So I think the dynamic is going to shift a little bit. The conference is being remade, and I don’t know that it’s going to be much help to Trump for the rest of the year.”RELATED: How Trump can fix his endorsement problem Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesFrom the beginning of Paxton’s bid, it became clear that the race would become about who could relate better to Trump. Cornyn was never the thorn in the president’s side that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) or Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) often were.But things came to a head when some media reports indicated that Trump was about to endorse Cornyn, at the urging of Senate Republicans. Then Paxton delivered a public promise to drop his campaign if the Senate passed the SAVE America Act, a voting reform bill that would require proof of identity and citizenship to vote.“That was a pivotal moment in this election cycle,” Blank said. “Paxton demonstrated to Trump the lengths he would go to support his agenda and a key distinction between himself and Cornyn.”The SAVE America Act passed the House but has not yet moved through the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has said there is not enough support in the Senate to use a filibuster to pass the bill. Cornyn was one of several institutionalist members who said it is important to keep the 60-vote threshold, even if it means not passing the legislation. In March, Trump insisted that he would not sign any legislation until Congress passed the SAVE America Act, and he told the Senate to “kill the filibuster” to get it done.“Cornyn long held that he did not think the filibuster should be changed because he held a certain amount of fealty to the institution of the U.S. Senate. Paxton demonstrated his fealty to the president, and that was ultimately much more persuasive,” Blank said.Some analysts say this further cements Trump’s political kingmaker status, at least within the Republican Party, even while his popularity is sinking.“There is zero doubt tonight that Donald Trump is in complete and total control of the Republican Party,” pollster and political consultant Frank Luntz posted on X on Tuesday night.He can beat just about any Republican in just about any state in just about any primary. He is chief strategist, chief advocate, and chief voice of the GOP. His name may not be on the ballot in November, but make no mistake: Nothing and no one will have a bigger impact on voter behavior.Trump’s involvement hardly guarantees Paxton’s win in November. The attorney general has advantages with name recognition and his record of winning statewide elections in the past. But Talarico is surging with his own fundraising, and Texas Republicans sometimes have a turnout problem in years when Trump is not on the ballot.“We would expect most Cornyn-supporting Republican voters to support Ken Paxton come November, because they’ve voted for him in the past,” Blank said. “But if even a small share of Republicans decide that Ken Paxton is ethically unfit for office, as John Cornyn argued and spent nearly $100 million promoting, that makes a competitive election that much more competitive.”In a Wednesday appearance on "The Hugh Hewitt Show," Thune described the GOP’s newfound advocacy for Paxton.“Obviously, we are making the pivot,” Thune said. “He’s all-in, ready to go for the fall election, and not taking any time off, already on the phone raising money and all the things you’re going to have to do to be successful.”Editor's note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
