Nikol Pashinyan will remain Prime Minister of Armenia. Following the elections held on June 7, his "Civil Contract" party did not reach 50% of the votes, but will still receive a majority of mandates in parliament. Pashinyan and his allies celebrated victory overnight, announcing that they would form a new government independently. However, this victory is not as significant as they had hoped. To finally sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, the Armenian authorities need a constitutional majority, meaning two-thirds of the seats in parliament. They failed to reach this threshold again, as they did in 2021. Another problem is the sharply escalated relations with Moscow: Yerevan will now have to renegotiate many issues with Russia. This will not be easy, given Pashinyan's promise to continue rapprochement with the EU. The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, has already commented on the voting results, stating that "the Armenian people, despite strong pressure from Russia, have nevertheless chosen a European future." The struggle and its developments are detailed in the material by expert on the post-Soviet space, Roman Chernikov, exclusively for "Novaya Gazeta Europe." Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan speaks at the headquarters of the ruling "Civil Contract" party after parliamentary elections, Yerevan, Armenia, June 8, 2026. Photo: Anthony Pizzoferrato / AP / Scanpix / LETA. Did Not Reach Half Overnight after the elections, the slogan that has accompanied Armenian politics for eight years again resounded in Yerevan. "Nikol - Varchapet!" (meaning "Prime Minister"), shouted Pashinyan's supporters when he arrived at the election headquarters for a press conference. At that moment, only 10% of the protocols had been processed, and "Civil Contract" had about 53% of the votes according to them. But this did not prevent the prime minister from declaring an unconditional victory. Pashinyan added that he had already "unofficially" spoken with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and French President Emmanuel Macron. Apparently, this was intended to convince everyone once again that there should be no doubt about the ruling party's victory. Then the result for "Civil Contract" began to slowly worsen. As soon as the percentage of counted ballots exceeded half, Pashinyan's party's result also approached 50%. This meant that not even a constitutional, but a simple majority was at stake. By morning, Pashinyan's party's result was below half - about 49.86%. Nevertheless, due to the peculiarities of the electoral system, this allowed them to count on 64 mandates out of 105 (in the previous parliament, "Civil Contract" had 62 seats out of 107). There will be only three political forces in the new parliament: "Civil Contract," "Strong Armenia" by Samvel Karapetyan (23.35%), and "Armenia" by Robert Kocharyan (9.95%). "Prosperous Armenia" by Gagik Tsarukyan fluctuated around the coveted 4% threshold (which is the passing threshold for parties) throughout the night and then dropped below it. In the end, it stopped at a very unfortunate result - 3.97%. Leader of the "Strong Armenia" party Samvel Karapetyan leaves a polling station after voting in parliamentary elections, Yerevan, Armenia, June 7, 2026. Photo: Yuri Kochetkov / Sputnik / Imago Images / Scanpix / LETA. Post-Election Threats Speaking immediately after the elections, Pashinyan stated that "the criminal-oligarchic system must be completely eradicated." He was referring to his three rivals - Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, another wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, and former president Robert Kocharyan, who can be called Pashinyan's main political enemy. "The leaders of these forces must be brought to criminal responsibility... The deprivation of property of the criminal oligarchy must be carried out very quickly... This will be done through the confiscation of illegal property, criminal cases, and the protection of state interests," threatened Pashinyan. There was nothing fundamentally new in these words. The Armenian prime minister had already tried to imprison Kocharyan and Tsarukyan during his first term - before the war in Karabakh. Kocharyan was accused of illegally using force against protesters on March 1, 2008, but the court eventually acquitted him. Tsarukyan was accused of vote-buying back in 2017 - and also without success. Samvel Karapetyan is a "new" rival in this regard. According to some political scientists, he entered Armenian politics quite by chance. At the peak of Pashinyan's struggle with the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Garegin II, Karapetyan gave an interview where he defended the latter. For this, the businessman was first sent to a pre-trial detention center, and then placed under house arrest. As a result, Karapetyan and his allies created a party that later became the "Strong Armenia" bloc. Throughout the campaign, this political force was under close scrutiny by law enforcement agencies. According to Karapetyan himself, 700 of his supporters were detained in the last month alone. They were accused of distributing bribes for votes - the Anti-Corruption Committee regularly released new recordings of alleged intercepted phone conversations. In these recordings, the speakers discuss the price for votes and usually add that discussing such matters by mobile phone is dangerous, and it's better to use WhatsApp. Victory Over Apathy Throughout the entire voting day, Armenian oppositionists did not hide their joy about the turnout, which was noticeably higher than in the previous elections in 2021 and 2017. By the end of the day, it reached 58.97%. According to the opposition, this was very good. Since the beginning of the year, Armenian political scientists had been saying that Pashinyan would achieve his goals only if the turnout was low. Pro-Russian blogger Mika Badalyan, who was memorable for promising to buy tickets for all Armenians who would come to vote from abroad (but didn't), even rejoiced in advance: if the turnout reached 60%, Pashinyan's victory would allegedly be impossible. A queue at a polling station for parliamentary elections, Yerevan, Armenia, June 7, 2026. Photo: Yuri Kochetkov / Sputnik / Imago Images / Scanpix / LETA. The math was quite simple. If Pashinyan is supported by approximately 25% of the population (for example, this was the result of a February poll conducted by the American International Republican Institute), then less than half of the total number of voters must turn out for the elections. Then, from this small sample, the authorities' core electorate can constitute 55-60%. And due to the redistribution of votes from parties that did not pass, the result can reach 66.7%. This is the amount needed for a constitutional majority. The fact that many people who had not voted before came to the elections in the end surprised sociologists. Literally all of them, on the eve of the elections, spoke about the fact that the main emotion of the Armenian voter was apathy and disappointment. " According to the latest polls, up to 50% and even 60% of respondents either refused to talk about their preferences or did not intend to vote at all. A few weeks before the elections, these people received hope to vote "Against All." This is the name of a new party that began to organize various performances on the streets. For example, dressed as Spiderman, activists offered passersby to kick a plush mouse into a goal. This is a play on the Armenian idiom "to kick a mouse," meaning to be idle. They also handed out matsoni to people - to "reduce toxicity after words of hatred." And they rolled barrels in the center of Yerevan. The meaning of this expression in Armenian is the same as in Russian. The "Against All" party wanted to say that politicians too often accuse each other of all conceivable and inconceivable sins. However, despite the jokes of the young party that they raised the turnout, less than 1.5% of voters decided to vote for "Against All." Course Towards Reconciliation After the elections, Nikol Pashinyan immediately outlined his future priorities. One of them is signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. From this perspective, the fact that "Civil Contract" did not receive a constitutional majority is crucial. To sign a peace treaty with Baku, the Constitution needs to be amended, which contains an indirect reference to Nagorno-Karabakh and its "reunification" with Armenia. It doesn't matter that this is a 1989 document, which was even recognized as invalid at the USSR level - Baku still demands changes. A referendum is needed to amend the Constitution. Some articles can be amended without it, but the preamble cannot. And the reference is precisely in the preamble. And to put the issue to a referendum, the votes of two-thirds of the deputies are needed. Since all of Pashinyan's competitors consider this concession treacherous, it will not be easy to get their help. Only if they truly blackmail everyone around with criminal cases. Nevertheless, Pashinyan does not intend to abandon his intentions. He considers the institutionalization of peace with Azerbaijan, as well as the normalization of relations with Turkey, as key tasks for the new term. "My message to the Turkish and Azerbaijani societies is: the people of Armenia have voted for peace and regional cooperation," the prime minister said at a press conference. Nikol Pashinyan speaks at the headquarters of the "Civil Contract" party after parliamentary elections, Yerevan, Armenia, June 8, 2026. Photo: Alexander Patrin / TASS / ZUMA Press / Scanpix / LETA. Between the EU and the EAEU Another key issue is the future relations between Yerevan and Moscow, which secretly and openly supported Pashinyan's rivals. Too many words and demonstrative gestures concerning Russian-Armenian relations have occurred in the last couple of months. Recall that shortly before the elections, Russia banned the import of a number of goods from Armenia: from "Jermuk" mineral water to fruits. Vladimir Putin hinted at the "Ukrainian scenario" for Yerevan: "The crisis in Ukraine began at some point with attempts to join the EU." In addition, he not by chance mentioned the "European" price of Russian gas: "Energy prices, gas, say, in Europe are somewhere over $600 per thousand cubic meters. Russia sells gas to Armenia for $177.5 per thousand cubic meters. The difference is large." The "European" price is completely unacceptable for Yerevan simply because it would ruin a large part of Armenian families. At a press conference after the elections, Nikol Pashinyan announced: "We will continue the course towards rapprochement with the European Union, but we will also continue our participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, and continue to develop relations with Russia and other member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union." The question is, in what format will this "development of relations" occur? In a resolution following a recent EAEU summit, the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan announced that they would work by December on the issue of possibly "suspending the Eurasian Economic Union treaty in relation to the Republic of Armenia." In other words, if Pashinyan continues the course towards rapprochement with the European Union, he will likely be deprived of the opportunity to benefit from duty-free trade. How exactly this will be done is still unclear. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk admits that there is simply no clause in the treaty that allows for the exclusion of one of the members. Especially for actions related not to the economy, but to politics. But Overchuk suggested approaching this "conflict" "pragmatically": "All this needs to be studied very carefully, from a legal point of view, by December." At the same time, it is quite obvious that Armenia's behavior concerns only Moscow (and possibly Alexander Lukashenko, who has personal scores to settle with Nikol Pashinyan). At the same time, for example, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was one of the first foreign leaders to call Yerevan to congratulate Pashinyan on his victory. The choice of the Armenian people, naturally, also pleased Brussels. "The votes are still being counted, but it looks like the Armenian people, despite strong pressure from Russia, have nevertheless chosen a European future. This is very good," commented the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, on the results. And on behalf of the EU, she promised to continue to "help with all their might" Yerevan in implementing reforms.