In the first quarter of 2026, Russian authorities paid federal bonuses to 71.2 thousand new contract soldiers – this is a minimum for three years, comparing data for similar periods. According to economist Janis Kluge, recruitment slowed to approximately 800 people per day in January-March. Where is the data from? Kluge made the estimate based on Russian Ministry of Finance data on federal budget expenditures. In January-March, 28.5 billion rubles were spent on one-time payments for contract conclusion. Since the federal payment is 400,000 rubles, this corresponds to 71,216 new contracts. This is less than for the same period in 2025, when 89.6 thousand people received payments, and less than in the first quarter of 2024, when there were 73.4 thousand such contracts. Federal data aligns with estimates made based on information from regional budgets. At the same time, in the second quarter, recruitment, according to regional data, stabilized again at approximately 1000 contracts per day, or about 30 thousand per month. Kluge notes that there is a gap between official statements and budget data. For example, Dmitry Medvedev spoke of 127 thousand new contract soldiers since the beginning of the year at the end of April. What does this mean? A decrease in recruitment rates is not direct proof of a shortage of people for the Russian army. However, according to Kluge, the version of recruitment problems seems more likely: average regional payments per contract continue to rise and are at a record level, and there are many reports from regions about pressure to meet recruitment targets. What is happening with students? Ivan Chuvilyaev, press secretary for the "Go to the Forest" project, noted in a conversation with "Novaya-Europe" that human rights defenders have not noticed a decrease in pressure on students. According to him, there are still many attempts at recruitment, especially among those persuaded to sign a contract through administrative structures. Human rights defenders are currently aware of one deceased student. There are also approximately a thousand students from Siberia, the Urals, and the Volga region known to have possibly joined "drone troops." However, more detailed data on students who have signed contracts and gone to the front is currently unavailable. Impact on the war. As explained by Ilya Volzhsky, military observer for "Novaya-Europe," fluctuations in the recruitment of Russian contract soldiers for the front have occurred before. The largest number of those willing to serve in the army was observed after Trump took office as president – then Russians decided that the war would end soon and hurried to receive payments for signing a contract. "These fluctuations have not played a decisive role on the front yet. The Russian army is still trying to advance, but unsuccessfully," stated the expert. "The use of kill-zone tactics by Ukrainians has proven effective. Most Russian assault troops die during infiltration attempts. Specialists believe that without new methods of offense, Russian forces will get bogged down in Ukrainian defenses even if new extensive reinforcements arrive," said Volzhsky.