The calm in Hormuz could be dangerously brief A new US-Iran agreement has been announced to end their latest confrontation and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was blocked by Iran. However, this deal is not a final peace accord as Iran’s nuclear program remains a central unresolved issue, with further negotiations scheduled for 60 days. Regional tensions with Israel and potential instability in Lebanon also pose significant risks to the fragile agreement.

• US and Iran have agreed to end their latest confrontation and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• The deal is a 60-day pause for further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
• Iran has accumulated over 400kg of uranium close to weapons-grade.
• Republican hawks in the US may force any nuclear agreement to go before Congress.
• Israel has stated its army will remain in ‘security zones’ in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
• Iran’s core demand for a complete ceasefire in Lebanon adds to regional volatility.
• The deal is driven by Trump’s need for lower gas prices before mid-term elections and Iran’s need for sanctions relief.
• Western European states are promising sanctions relief for verifiable steps on the nuclear file.