Bitcoin and the Next Halving: Why the 2028 Supply Shock Will Be Different

The April 2028 Bitcoin halving — block reward dropping from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC — is approximately 700 days away. Understanding what this supply shock will mean for price requires understanding both the historical precedents and the structural changes in Bitcoin’s market since 2020.

The Historical Pattern

Every Bitcoin halving has followed a similar pattern: the reduction in daily supply creates an eventual price response, but the timing and magnitude have varied.

The 2012 halving: block reward dropped from 50 to 25 BTC. Daily supply fell from approximately 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC. Bitcoin was at $12. The bull run that followed: approximately 100x.

The 2016 halving: block reward dropped from 25 to 12.5 BTC. Daily supply fell from 3,600 to 1,800 BTC. Bitcoin was at $650. The bull run that followed: approximately 30x.

The 2020 halving: block reward dropped from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. Daily supply fell from 1,800 to 900 BTC. Bitcoin was at $8,500. The bull run that followed: approximately 7x to $69,000.

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